Uncertainty Over 98W Storm System Raises Typhoon Alert in Taiwan — Experts Urge Public to Prepare for the Worst
Taipei, Taiwan — July 2, 2025 — Will a typhoon strike Taiwan directly? According to the weather monitoring page “Taiwan Typhoon Forum | Weather Emergency,” it’s still too early to tell — but current conditions suggest the possibility of a sudden and dangerous approach that could “catch the public off guard.”
The forum pointed out that the three major global forecast models — European (ECMWF), American (GFS), and German (ICON) — are offering highly inconsistent projections for the tropical low-pressure system known as 98W. The primary reason for this uncertainty is the system’s unstable structure, which makes accurate prediction extremely difficult.
“The center of the low-pressure system 98W remains unorganized,” the forum stated. “This instability affects the accuracy of all model forecasts, leading to significant differences in the predicted path.”
The page added that some models, such as the European system, have not yet even confirmed the formation of a typhoon. In the absence of a consensus, meteorologists say it is impossible to determine the storm’s exact track — or whether it will fully develop into a typhoon at all.
Given the current conditions, the forum estimates that 1 to 2 more days of observation will be needed before a clearer picture emerges. Once the core of the system consolidates, forecast models are expected to align and provide more reliable projections.
Despite the uncertainty, the forum issued a strong warning: if the system does move toward Taiwan, it could do so quickly and with limited warning, potentially catching residents unprepared.
This concern is amplified by reports of two typhoons forming in succession, with early model paths suggesting that one could pass directly over Taiwan in the coming days.
The public is urged to remain vigilant, monitor official updates from the Central Weather Administration, and make early preparations — especially those in coastal, mountainous, and flood-prone areas.
