September 12, 2025. Gold prices climbed on Friday, edging closer to their all-time high, as weak U.S. labor market data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates for the first time this year at next week’s policy meeting.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,648.55 per ounce, just shy of the record $3,673.95 set earlier this week. Meanwhile, December gold futures gained 0.3% to $3,686.40 per ounce.
The metal logged its fourth consecutive weekly gain, rising 1.7% over the past week and surging 39% since the beginning of the year. Analysts pointed to disappointing labor data as a key driver. Initial jobless claims rose sharply, and U.S. nonfarm payrolls showed a steep monthly decline of 911,000 jobs, signaling that economic momentum is slowing.
While inflation remains a concern—August’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded its largest monthly increase in seven months—investors appear more focused on weak employment trends. Many market watchers believe this will force the Fed to act.
“Soft employment data combined with choppy inflation trends are creating an environment of persistent inflation risks,” explained Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. “This, along with expectations of rate cuts, continues to push precious metals higher.”
In fact, futures markets are now pricing in a 100% probability that the Fed will lower its benchmark rate by at least 25 basis points at its September 17 meeting, with some traders even expecting a 50-point cut.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that gold’s outlook remains bullish. “Considering the macro backdrop, along with renewed inflows into gold-backed ETFs, we now expect prices to reach $3,900 per ounce by mid-2026,” he said.
As rate-cut expectations grow, investors are closely watching next week’s Fed decision, which could determine whether gold continues its march to new record highs.
